To invest in property growth, smart investors look for underlying tailwinds—long‑term trends (not short‑term price moves) that support rising rents, occupancy, and capital values.

• Land Values and Population Growth: The truth remains: house prices in established suburbs are fundamentally driven by land values, which in turn are influenced by population growth and concentration. Australia’s continued urbanisation, focused on Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, reinforces upward pressure on land values.
• Immigration: Labor’s recent election victory ensures immigration will remain elevated, in contrast the somewhat lower levels proposed by the Coalition. Australia will likely continue to rank the second highest population growth rate in the developed world, adding fuel to housing demand and upward pressure on land values underneath those homes.
• Government Housing Programs Add Upward Price Pressure: Labor’s re-election platform included a suite of expansionary measures aimed at supporting first-home buyers. These include significantly increasing the price thresholds for eligibility under the Help to Buy shared equity scheme, and a quasi-nationalisation of lenders’ mortgage insurance, with the Government stepping in to self-insure buyers with deposits as low as 5%. While these initiatives aim to improve access to homeownership, they are also likely to further stimulate demand and place upward pressure on property prices
• Housing Tax Policy Stability: During the campaign, Labor firmly committed to not change negative gearing or impose rent controls, distancing itself from the Greens policies that may have been more relevant in a minority Government outcome. Labor’s decisive victory reduces the Greens’ influence in Parliament and saw the Greens lose three House seats, including that of their leader Adam Bandt. This strengthens expectations of continued tax policy stability, a key factor for investor confidence.
• Interest Rate Outlook: The Reserve Bank has lowered the cash rate by another 25 basis points to 3.85% and signalled dovish intent. Governor Michelle Bullock has dismissed concerns about rising house prices influencing rate decisions. RBA minutes revealed the Board even considered a 50 basis point cut. Markets now expect at least two further 25 basis point cuts, potentially as soon as July. While we believe interest rates are a somewhat overrated driver of long-term house prices in a relatively low-geared asset class, they do significantly impact buyer sentiment and behaviour, often creating self-reinforcing price momentum.
• Persistent Supply Constraints: The housing supply crisis shows little sign of resolution. Developers face feasibility hurdles, and the industry remains sceptical of meaningful change. The CFMEU’s influence on Labor further complicates prospects for immigration reform focused on skilled trades. As a result, the Government’s goal of 1.2 million new homes in five years is likely to fall short by a third or more – a negative for first-home buyers but a tailwind for our Fund’s portfolio, as scarcity continues to drive capital growth.