Published by TENfold Property Advisory | June 2026
Australia’s housing crisis remains one of the defining economic challenges of our time. With property prices stubbornly elevated, rental vacancy rates near historic lows, and the Federal Government’s National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years already running behind schedule, the 2026-27 state and territory budgets were eagerly anticipated. Would governments step up with bold, effective policy? Or would they tinker at the margins while the housing shortfall deepens?
At TENfold Property Advisory, we’ve worked through each state and territory budget to assess what the housing measures actually mean in practice — for buyers, renters, developers, and investors. Here is our jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction breakdown.
Australian Capital Territory: A Historic Stamp Duty Experiment
The ACT budget is arguably the most headline-grabbing of the lot. From 1 July 2026, the ACT becomes the first jurisdiction in Australia to abolish stamp duty for all first home buyers — with no price cap and no requirement to purchase a new dwelling. The exemption also extends to pensioners, eligible NDIS participants, and any buyer who hasn’t owned property in the last five years.
At TENfold, we see this as more than a targeted first home buyer measure. It is a live policy experiment to test whether removing stamp duty fundamentally changes market behaviour — particularly whether it encourages people to move into dwellings that better suit their needs. Stamp duty has long been regarded as a tax that distorts the efficient allocation of housing. It discourages downsizers from releasing larger family homes and penalises people who need to relocate. Broader exemptions may begin to correct that.
On the supply side, the ACT has committed $364 million for 450 new public housing dwellings, $183 million for public housing repairs, and a further $90 million for 1,000 property renewals. There is also $1 million allocated to commission a Canberra House Pattern Book — a practical initiative targeting the chronically undersupplied “missing middle” housing types like dual occupancies, terraces, and townhouses. A temporary 50% remission of the Lease Variation Charge for missing middle developments adds further incentive for developers to move in this direction.
TENfold view: The ACT’s stamp duty reform creates genuine market dynamics worth watching. If broader exemptions stimulate turnover and unlock downsizer stock, it could improve the circulation of established housing. The missing middle focus also signals where medium-density development opportunities are likely to emerge in Canberra over the coming years.
New South Wales: Big Shortfall, Modest Response
NSW is Australia’s most populous state and, by our estimates, has only delivered around 61% of its pro-rata share of the National Housing Accord target in the first 18 months — a shortfall approaching 44,000 new dwellings. The urgency is real and growing.
Against this backdrop, the NSW budget’s housing response is notable primarily for its modesty. In a striking omission, the word “housing” did not appear once in the NSW Treasurer’s Budget Speech.
What was announced includes:
- A Modern Methods of Construction facility to manufacture prefabricated housing components, aimed at lowering build costs and accelerating delivery.
- An $80 million expansion of the Pre-Sale Finance Guarantee for community housing development.
- A new Development Coordination Authority (from 1 July 2026) to streamline the development assessment process.
These are not bad measures — they are sensible enabling reforms. But at TENfold we are concerned that they fail to address the binding constraint on housing delivery right now, which is project feasibility. Construction costs remain elevated, interest rates have compressed developer margins, and finance for new residential projects remains difficult to secure. None of the NSW budget measures directly tackle those pressures. Incentives to stimulate private development investment are conspicuously absent.
TENfold view: NSW’s structural undersupply story supports long-term price resilience in Sydney and major regional centres for existing holders. However, the absence of meaningful development incentives means the new supply pipeline will remain constrained. For developers and investors, NSW continues to offer opportunity precisely because the shortage is so persistent — but don’t expect government policy to accelerate the cycle in the near term.
Northern Territory: Disaster Recovery Dominates
The NT budget was headlined by a record $1.7 billion package for public order and community safety. On housing, the approach was dual-track.
On the demand side, the HomeGrown Territory grant (up to $50,000 for eligible first home buyers building or purchasing a new home) and the Freshstart grant (up to $30,000 for buyers of new homes) were both extended to 30 September 2027. These grants are designed to stimulate demand for new builds, which is the right direction.
On the supply side, $782 million was allocated for new and upgraded housing across remote and urban areas, along with infrastructure to support land release. However, a significant component of this spending is effectively disaster recovery — rebuilding housing damaged by last year’s severe weather events — rather than net new supply creation.
At TENfold, we recognise that rebuilding damaged infrastructure is both necessary and urgent. But it is important to note that replacing destroyed housing does not increase the overall stock. The bigger structural issues — attracting private investment and growing the local construction workforce — remain largely unaddressed in this budget.
TENfold view: The NT remains a high-risk, high-yield market. The extended grants will support local demand for new builds, but the structural barriers to private investment limit the depth of opportunity for most investors. This is a market requiring specialist local knowledge and a longer-term horizon.
Queensland: Strong Government Intent, But Investor Competition Looms
Queensland’s budget was one of the more ambitious housing packages nationally, with a strong government-led delivery commitment.
On the demand side, Queensland has abolished stamp duty on new homes for first home buyers and extended the boosted $30,000 First Home Owner Grant for another four years. The Boost to Buy shared equity scheme also continues, helping lower-deposit buyers access the market.
On the supply side, the standout measure is the doubling of the Residential Activation Fund to $1 billion to unlock thousands of new homes. The government also committed $5.725 billion over four years toward social and community housing, with a long-term target of 53,500 social and community homes by 2044.
While the government’s commitment to housing delivery is welcome, at TENfold we see an important tension emerging. The recent federal changes to Capital Gains Tax and negative gearing — which now provide greater tax benefits specifically for new build purchases — may bring property investors into direct competition with first home buyers for the same dwellings that the stamp duty exemption is designed to support. It remains to be seen how that dynamic plays out in practice, particularly in Brisbane’s growth corridors.
TENfold view: Queensland’s combination of government supply investment and private investor incentives makes it one of the most active and watched markets in the country right now. The clear policy pivot toward new builds — reinforced at both state and federal level — makes new and off-the-plan product the preferred position for investors seeking tax-efficient outcomes.
South Australia: A Clear Strategy, But a Target Gap
South Australia arrived with a $2.5 billion housing package that is refreshingly well-structured. At TENfold we see it neatly divided into two streams: boosting supply and facilitating home ownership.
Key supply-side commitments include:
- A $1.3 billion Rent-to-Own program offering 2,000 new homes at 75% of market rent, with an option to purchase at the end of the lease term.
- A $500 million Housing Fast-Track Fund to acquire and on-sell strategic land for housing development.
- A $500 million Apartment Fast-Track Fund providing pre-sale guarantees for apartment developers.
- $50 million in enabling infrastructure to deliver 400 homes for first home buyers by end of 2027.
- A housing pattern book ($500,000 over two years) to reduce design costs and fast-track approvals.
On the demand side: stamp duty relief for downsizers aged 60+ buying a new home up to $2 million, expanded HomeStart Finance loan products, and a continuing $15,000 First Home Owner Grant.
However, TENfold has a concern with the numbers. South Australia’s share of the National Housing Accord equates to over 16,000 new homes per annum. The state government has set its own annual target at just 13,500 — a gap of more than 2,500 dwellings per year before construction has even begun. Additionally, the requirement that downsizers must purchase a new build to qualify for stamp duty relief will restrict options and may limit how effectively the measure frees up established housing stock.
TENfold view: South Australia’s apartment pre-sale guarantee program is the standout measure for development-focused investors. If you are considering off-the-plan or apartment development, SA has created a meaningfully more supportive environment than most other states. Adelaide continues to offer relative affordability with strengthening fundamentals.
Tasmania: Ambitious Accord Target, Lagging Delivery
Tasmania’s share of the National Housing Accord is approximately 26,000 new homes over five years. At TENfold we estimate that fewer than 4,000 new dwellings were delivered in the first 18 months — a substantial gap relative to the pace required.
The budget includes an expansion of the MyHome Shared Equity Program (enabling buyers to enter the market with as little as a 2% deposit on properties up to $800,000) and a $20,000 First Home Owner Grant for new builds (reduced from a previously boosted $30,000 but still double the base $10,000 rate).
The primary supply-side initiative is unlocking land at Dowsing Point — a former defence site near Glenorchy, approximately 10km from Hobart’s CBD — to deliver at least 1,000 new homes. While a positive step, the volume is unlikely to make a meaningful dent in the statewide shortfall.
At TENfold, we are concerned about what is missing: concrete action on supply-side constraints. Fast-tracking approval processes and addressing the skilled labour shortage are the two levers most likely to accelerate housing delivery in Tasmania, and this budget does not adequately address either.
TENfold view: Hobart and key regional Tasmanian markets remain supply-constrained, which supports prices for existing holders over the long term. However, the weak development pipeline means speculative development plays carry elevated execution risk. Established property in well-located Tasmanian suburbs remains a more straightforward investment proposition.
Victoria: Tax Uncertainty Weighing on Sentiment
Victoria’s budget was predominantly focused on cost-of-living relief, including half-priced public transport until January 2027 and a 20% vehicle registration rebate. On housing, the measures were modest: an extension of the off-the-plan stamp duty concession to April 2027, a continuation of the $10,000 First Home Owner Grant and stamp duty relief for eligible first home buyers, and an $860 million Social Housing Growth Fund commitment over five years.
At TENfold, we have been closely tracking the impact of Victoria’s property tax environment on market confidence — and the signal is not encouraging. Victoria’s broad range of property-related taxes, including the vacant residential land tax, the windfall gains tax, and elevated land transfer duties, have measurably depressed investor sentiment. Our assessment of national market data suggests Victoria is sitting at or near the bottom of the country for property market sentiment.
While Victoria has performed relatively better than some states against the National Housing Accord target to date, we see the deteriorating investor confidence as a genuine forward risk to the development pipeline. The lack of any intention to review the current tax settings in this budget represents a missed opportunity. Restoring confidence does not necessarily require sweeping tax cuts — a credible signal of review and reform would have made a meaningful difference.
TENfold view: Victoria’s tax environment is a real and ongoing risk factor, particularly for investors in the $1M+ segment and residential developers. Until there is a genuine commitment to reviewing the current settings, we advise clients to weigh Victorian exposure carefully relative to comparable opportunities in Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia.
Western Australia: Comprehensive But Slow-Burn
Western Australia delivered one of the most balanced and comprehensive housing packages nationally. Supply-side highlights include:
- $1.3 billion for land development and enabling infrastructure.
- A $250 million Pre-Sale Guarantee for developers, conditional on at least 30% affordable dwellings.
- $48 million for two new Housing and Infrastructure Advanced Manufacturing Facilities supporting apartment and non-residential infrastructure delivery.
- A $51 million construction workforce investment, covering additional TAFE places, the GTO Wage Subsidy Program, the Construction Visa Subsidy Program, and the Build a Life in WA incentive.
On the demand side, WA raised thresholds for first home buyer stamp duty exemptions, increased the First Home Owner Grant price cap, extended the off-the-plan transfer duty concession (expanded to include survey strata developments), and continued Keystart low-deposit and shared equity loan programs with higher property price limits.
At TENfold, we regard WA’s supply-side package as one of the more thoughtful nationally — it targets land release, manufacturing capacity, and workforce simultaneously. These are the right reforms. But they are slow-burn. Meanwhile, the demand-side measures — particularly Keystart loan expansions and stamp duty changes — will likely boost demand more immediately than supply can respond to. In the near term, that gap is more likely to widen than narrow.
TENfold view: Perth has been one of Australia’s strongest-performing markets over the past three years, and WA’s budget doesn’t materially change the supply-demand dynamic in the short term. For investors already holding in WA, conditions remain broadly supportive. For those considering entry, be mindful that demand stimulus measures may bring forward competition from other buyers — particularly first home buyers and downsizers — into the same price segments.
The National Picture: What Investors Need to Take Away
Across eight jurisdictions, several consistent themes emerge from TENfold’s analysis of the 2026-27 state budgets:
1. The supply shortfall is deepening, not narrowing. Every state is running behind on its National Housing Accord commitments. Budget measures are steps in the right direction but are unlikely to close the gap within the Accord’s five-year window.
2. New builds are the policy priority. Across stamp duty exemptions, grants, and pre-sale guarantees, state governments are consistently directing incentives toward new dwellings. The federal CGT and negative gearing changes reinforce this direction. The policy environment now clearly favours new and off-the-plan product.
3. Pre-sale guarantee programs are a real opportunity for developers. South Australia, NSW, and Western Australia all have pre-sale finance guarantees in place. These are meaningful mechanisms for unlocking apartment supply and materially reduce financing risk for developers.
4. Victoria remains the outlier. Its tax settings continue to suppress investor confidence in a way that no other state is experiencing. A policy reset is needed and has not yet arrived.
5. Workforce and approvals bottlenecks are the next frontier. WA’s construction workforce programs and NSW’s Development Coordination Authority signal that governments are beginning to address non-financial constraints on delivery. These reforms take time but are essential to any meaningful improvement in housing supply.
The structural undersupply story is intact across almost every jurisdiction. Government action, while improving, is unlikely to meaningfully ease the housing shortage within the next two to three years. For long-term holders and selective buyers in supply-constrained markets, that backdrop remains fundamentally supportive of property values.
If you would like to understand what these budget measures mean for your specific property investment strategy, we invite you to get in touch with the TENfold team.
This commentary is prepared by TENfold Property Advisory for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. to discuss your individual circumstances.